The Iowa Leading Indicators Index remained unchanged at 105.2 in January, according to the monthly report from the Iowa Department of Revenue.
The index was at 105.2 in both December and November 2023.
The monthly diffusion index increased to 62.5 in January, up from 50 in December.
The Iowa nonfarm employment coincident index recorded a .07% increase in January. Long-term trends in the ILII suggest that nonfarm employment will decrease over the next three to six months.
The ILII was created to signal economic turning points with two key metrics that when seen together are considered a signal of a coming contraction: a six-month annualized change in the index below -2% and a six-month diffusion index below 50.
The six-month diffusion index remained in a contractionary signal for the thirteenth month in a row, according to the monthly report, and the six-month annualized change showed contraction for the twelfth month in a row.
Six of the eight component indicators decreased more than .05% over the last half-year, including the agricultural futures profits index (AFPI), diesel fuel consumption, the Iowa stock market index, new orders index, residential building permits, and initial unemployment insurance claims.
Average manufacturing hours and the national yield spread were the only components to increase by more than .05% over the last six months.
- Diesel fuel consumption was the strongest positive contributor to the ILII in January. Diesel fuel consumption increased 5.4% between January 2023 and January 2024. The 12-month moving average increased to 64.83 million gallons in January, from 64.59 million in December.
- Diesel fuel consumption and the national yield spread went from negative detractors in December 2023 to positive contributors to the Index in January.
- The largest detractor from the Index in January 2024 was the average weekly unemployment claims (inverted). The 12-month moving average of unemployment insurance claims increased from 2,195 in December 2023 to 2,339 in January 2024. Unemployment claims were 77.9% above January 2023 claims, yet 8.6% below average historical claims for January (1988-2023).
To view the Iowa Leading Indicators Index report, visit the Iowa Department of Revenue website.
