The Iowa Leading Indicators Index (ILII) decreased to 105.2 in November (-0.4%) from 105.6 in October, according to the monthly report from the Iowa Department of Revenue.
The monthly diffusion index decreased to 12.5 in November from 25.0 in October.
The Iowa nonfarm employment coincident index recorded a 0.05% increase in November. Long term trends in the ILII suggest that nonfarm employment will decrease over the next three to six months.
The ILII was created to signal economic turning points with two key metrics that when seen together are considered a signal of a coming contraction: a six-month annualized change in the index below -2.0% and a six-month diffusion index below 50.0.
The six-month diffusion index remained a contractionary signal for the 11th month in a row and the six-month annualized change showed contraction for the 13th month in a row. Six of the eight component indicators decreased more than 0.05% over the last half-year: the agricultural futures profits index (AFPI), diesel fuel consumption, the Iowa stock market index, new orders index, residential building permits, and initial unemployment insurance claims.
Average manufacturing hours and the national yield spread were the only components to increase by more than 0.05% over the last six months.
- The Iowa Stock Market Index was the only positive contributor to the ILII in November. During November, 17 of the 28 companies gained value, and 10 of the 10 financial-sector companies increased. With nearly two-thirds of the stocks experiencing gains, the index increased to 112.93 in November from 111.51 in October.
- Average manufacturing hours and the national yield spread went from positive contributors in October to negative detractors to the index in November.
- The largest detractor from the index in November was diesel fuel consumption. Diesel fuel consumption decreased 8.2% between November 2022 and November 2023. The 12-month moving average decreased to 64.88 million gallons in November from 65.45 million gallons in October.
To view the Iowa Leading Indicators Index report, visit the Iowa Department of Revenue website.
