The Iowa Leading Indicators Index (ILII), used by state officials to forecast tax revenues and the future direction of economic activity, decreased 0.3% to 110.5 in June compared to 110.8 in May. The monthly diffusion index decreased to 43.8 after remaining at 50.0 for two consecutive months.
This is the first month since December 2021 that the monthly diffusion index fell below 50.0. The Iowa nonfarm employment coincident index rose 0.23% in June, the fifteenth month of growth.
According to the report, the Agricultural Futures Profits Index (AFPI) was the strongest contributor to the ILII in May. The AFPI measure corn and soybean expected profits, as well as cattle and hog expected profits. It is weighted by the share of Iowa annual cash receipts averaged over the prior 10 calendar years. Compared to last year, new crop corn prices were 21.7% higher while soybean prices were 10.4% higher.
Other high points of the monthly report were unemployment claims (33.9% below June 2021 figures) and residential building permits (June 2022 permits were 9% higher than this time last year).
The largest detractor from the index in May was the Iowa Stock Market Index. The index did not rebound in June as only one of 29 publicly-traded companies gained value, and none of the 10 financial sector companies increased. The index decreased to 122.92 in June from 141.88 in May.
Year-over-year diesel fuel consumption, new orders and yield spread all decreased in June.