The Iowa Leading Indicators Index (ILII), used by state officials to forecast tax revenues, remained unchanged at 110.4 in March from February.
With five of the eight components contributing positively, the monthly diffusion index decreased to 50 in from 56.3. The Iowa nonfarm employment coincident index recorded a 0.17 percent increase in March, the 12th month of growth in a row.
With consistent positive improvements over the last year and a half, this report suggests that employment growth will be positive over the next three to six months. The six-month diffusion index decreased in March to 62.5 from 75 in February and the annualized six-month ILII change value was 1.9%.
Other key findings include:
- Average weekly unemployment claims was the strongest contributor to the ILII in March. Changes are calculated based on a 12-month moving average and are inverted when added to the ILII. the 12-month moving average of claims decreasing from 2,797 to 2,472. Unemployment claims were 72.3% below March 2021 claims and 63.2% below average historical claims for March (1988-2021).
- New orders index went from a detractor in February to a positive contributor in March. Diesel fuel consumption and Iowa stock market index went from positive contributors to the index in February to detractors in March.
- The largest detractor from the index in March 2022 was the residential building permits. In March, permits were 1,083, down from 1,830 last year. The 12-month moving average decreased to 1,119 in March from 1,181 in February. March 2022 permits were 40.8% below March 2021, yet 2.4% above the monthly historical average (1998-2021).
