By Dave DeWitte
dave@corridorbusiness.com
Airlines and airports that survived 9/11 and the Great Recession are again trying to lure travelers back this summer after a months-long plunge caused by the coronavirus, but see little chance of a quick turnaround.
Iowa’s largest airports say passenger travel began to rebound slightly in May after diving by about 95% since the virus’ arrival in March. Getting back to pre-pandemic levels could take years, however, and some airports may never recover all the flights they’ve lost, with airlines slashing service to align with slackening demand.
In the Corridor, air travel hit its low point at the end of April with about 80 passengers a day going through the TSA security checkpoint at CID. Instead of the 98,177 passengers who went through security in April 2019, only 3,576 passengers passed through the suddenly quiet airport terminal.
Since then, the TSA checkpoint’s daily count has slowly crept back to about 300 passengers per day, Airport Director Marty Lenss said. It’s hard to imagine that the airport was booming only a few months ago.
“Some days those February numbers, up 30%, feel like yesterday, and some days it feels like a decade ago,” Mr. Lenss said.
Against the backdrop of an eerily quiet terminal, he and other airport staff have been scrambling to make the airport safe for travelers and staff, while simultaneously cutting expenditures and adjusting to changing airline schedules.
Daily flights at CID are down from an average of 33-34 flights a day before the pandemic to about nine to 12 departures per day. Delta Air Lines suspended direct flights to Atlanta and Detroit, and now connects CID directly to Minneapolis only. United Airlines suspended its direct flights to Denver, focusing on Chicago.
Mr. Lenss said airlines are also scaling back from larger aircraft, like Boeing 737s, to smaller regional jets as they reduce flight schedules.
“It’s going to be a challenge for communities across the country to get back to where we were,” Mr. Lenss said. “It’s going to be a slow recovery and for the local market here, flying local and buying local has never been more important.”
Getting the flights back will mean getting the passengers to come back, Mr. Lenss said. Doing that will require the lifting of corporate travel bans and convincing the leisure traveler that it’s safe to fly.
CID’s situation is far from unusual. Passenger enplanements were down about 95% in April at both Des Moines International Airport (DSM) and Quad City International Airport (MLI) in Moline, Illinois. DSM saw its direct flights reduced from 21 to 12, including Delta flights to Detroit, Salt Lake City and Atlanta. MLI lost a direct flight on Delta to Minneapolis.
The Waterloo Regional Airport, which has American Airlines service through an Essential Air Service subsidy, had been hoping to see a return to twice-daily service on two American feeder airlines this month. Instead, “they cut 50% of our flights, and we’re going from 12 or 13 a week down to about six a week,” said Kevin Kaspiri, the airport’s director of aviation. As a result, there will be no flights two days per week for the immediate future.
All four airports are optimistic that they can regain their flights, but realize they cannot take anything for granted. They are staying in close touch with the airlines and trying to position themselves to regain flights when more planes are deployed.
“The best we have to compare to is 9/11 and the recession of 2008,” DSM Executive Director Kevin Foley said. “Both of those took three to five years for recovery. I do see reports where it took us seven years to fully recover from the recession of 2008. … This is considerably different, because it is worldwide and international travel has basically come to a complete halt.”
Why they’re not flying
With the deadly potential of the coronavirus, many assume that the risk of contracting it has curtailed air travel. While that’s one reason, it’s not the deal-breaker for a number of travelers, according to Duane Jasper, CEO and owner of Travel Leaders / Destinations Unlimited in Cedar Rapids and Iowa City.
“There is some fear about catching the virus, but for most corporate travelers, the greatest concern is being quarantined,” Mr. Jasper said. “They want to make sure if they go somewhere, they won’t get locked up in a hotel room for quite some time.”
Leisure travel has been limited by shelter-in place orders, and by the closing of cruise lines, museums, theme parks and other destinations. As social distancing restrictions and shelter-in-place orders are lifted and attractions reopen, it’s expected that some will take the vacations or trips they’ve been postponing, and at least some will fly to do it.
About 82% of Americans had already changed their travel plans for the prime six-month travel season in an April survey of 1,000 households conducted by Longwoods International, a travel industry-focused market research firm. Fifty percent of respondents said they would cancel trips, and 45% said they would reduce their travel.
Belt-tightening due to the pandemic had convinced 22% of respondents not to take a vacation, and in another survey of 1,000 office workers conducted by the staffing agency Robert Half International, 37% said they’re saving up their vacation time in hopes of traveling when the pandemic eases later in the year.
Is it worth the risk?
The air travel industry is defending its safety by citing the measures it’s taking to prevent the spread of the coronavirus. Airlines are using HEPA filters on aircraft and fogging cabins with disinfectant between flights, Mr. Lenss said.
Some airlines are giving passengers small kits with masks and disinfecting wipes that they can use to wipe down the surfaces around them. A small number, including Delta, have restricted the maximum occupancy of their aircraft to allow for more distancing between passengers. Airlines have also cut back or changed their food offerings to minimize human contact.
Frontier Airlines last week began conducting touchless body temperature checks of passengers before boarding to screen for COVID-19, according to Mr. Lenss.
CID, DSM, MLI and many other airports have also been stepping up disinfecting measures, such as the use of electrostatic foggers. They are installing plexiglass screens at service counters, placing social distancing markers, expanding availability of hand sanitizers, and disinfecting passenger gates and boarding areas between flights. CID requires staff to wear face masks inside the terminal and distributes masks for customers who don’t have them at its customer service counter.
“We’ve got hand sanitizer just about anywhere there’s a countertop,” Mr. Lenss noted.
Whether air travel is the safest way to go may be a personal judgment, but the precautions are more evident than travelers would see in places like a convenience store or highway rest area.
“People we’ve talked to who have gone to the airports, they’re seeing a tremendous job being done of keeping things clean and sanitized, and spacing out people in most cases,” Mr. Jasper said.
Who will lead the comeback
Mr. Lenss sees the return of air travel playing out in three waves: “Leisure, domestic business and international travel.”
That’s been the pattern after previous travel interruptions like 9/11, Mr. Lenss said, and is likely to be replayed again.
One of the big factors inhibiting international travel is the differing quarantine requirements of governments, which can change at a moment’s notice, according to Mr. Jasper. Most companies that book travel through Travel Leaders / Destinations Unlimited still have travel bans in effect, but Mr. Jasper expects them to be eased or dropped in the next two months.
A critical factor enabling them to do that will be a closer definition of “permissible” travel. The agency has been working to educate corporate travel planners on the large differences in safety and the interruption involved in different types of travel, such as domestic, trans-border and international travel, to help them understand those definitions.
Airports and airlines are hoping they do it quickly.
“The corporates and the easing of their corporate travel bans in the months ahead will be very important to our recovery,” Mr. Lenss said.
As air travel began its nascent recovery at the end of May, the travelers showing up at airports were not conducting ordinary business or leisure travel, airport directors said.
“The vast majority of our travelers are people who have a serious need – major life events – as well as essential workers who have to get to places to provide essential services,” said MLI Director Ben Leischner. He said many had gotten to the point where they “can’t delay their plans indefinitely, so they’re just making the decision they have to travel.”
To make others with more discretionary needs feel comfortable about traveling, he said MLI has begun a marketing campaign stressing everything it’s doing to make the travel experience safe and easy.
Short-term, long-term changes
While many hope that air travel gets back to normal soon, airport directors say that some of the changes wrought by the pandemic will be around to stay for the foreseeable future.
Airports are deferring some capital improvement projects. CID has closed off three jetways and 6,000 square feet of terminal space to reduce costs, and is postponing its $16 million-plus Phase IV terminal renovation process. Meanwhile it’s going forward with more than $80 million in projects this summer, in part to ensure a $22.8 million federal CARES Act grant provides needed economic stimulus for the local economy.
DSM has closed off the A Concourse in its terminal, and is reviewing the timing of a project to build a new terminal in light of reduced travel demand, even while proceeding with preliminary projects needed to make that possible. It is considering moving up a runway intersection project scheduled for 2023 to take advantage of the lighter airline traffic.
“Right now, flexibility is the key and we need to remain flexible because nobody truly knows what this pandemic is going to do going forward,” Mr. Foley said. “We hear all different kinds of timelines for a vaccine coming out.”
Mr. Lenss said cost savings from closing down part of the CID terminal actually helps the airlines and helps keep CID competitive in retaining airlines by lowering the overhead costs they are charged in their lease rates. He said CID is also proceeding with a solar power project that will keep energy costs low.
Both CID and DSM are using the hiatus in air passenger traffic to accelerate parking renovations. DSM shut down floors two through floor of its parking ramp for renovations, Mr. Foley said, adding that getting the work done now will avoid revenue losses later when the airport is busier.
Travelers can expect many of the current changes to be around for the foreseeable future, and some other differences could be on the horizon.
“Masks are here for a while,” Mr. Lenss said. Passenger temperature screening could also become the norm, he said, as airlines have lobbied hard for the TSA to conduct body temperature checks on passengers during the security screening process.
In general, the goal will be a “touchless” experience for passengers at DSM to reduce risk of COVID-19, Mr. Foley said. Someday that could include use of facial recognition systems for passengers in some cases instead of showing boarding passes.
Passengers may be seeing more small jets, but they probably won’t be seeing less congested jets for better social distancing, even though that’s a change many travelers could get behind.
“Physical distancing on the airplane is an impossibility, and the airlines simply can’t afford to fly with empty seats,” Mr. Foley said. “If they do that, we as a society are going to have to accept that airlines tickets are significantly more expensive, and I don’t think we’re ready to do that.” CBJ
