The Iowa Leading Indicators Index rose in January, offering a broadly positive economic signal even as a federal government shutdown left two key data components unavailable, according to the state’s chief economist.
The Iowa Leading Indicators Index increased 0.3 percent to 108.0 in January 2026, up from 107.7 in December 2025, according to the Iowa Department of Revenue. The monthly diffusion index climbed to 87.5 in January from a revised 68.8 in December.
Because the federal shutdown has delayed the release of average manufacturing hours and housing data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics and the U.S. Census Bureau, January’s report was compiled using available components, with the missing data points neutralized. Retroactive revisions will be incorporated once January figures are released.
The ILII is designed to signal economic turning points. Two conditions together are considered an indicator of a coming contraction: a six-month annualized change in the index below negative 2.0 percent, and a six-month diffusion index below 50.0. Neither threshold was met in January. All six available component indicators increased more than 0.05 percent over the last half-year: the agricultural futures profits index, diesel fuel consumption, the national yield spread, the Iowa Stock Market index, the new orders index, and initial unemployment insurance claims.
Diesel fuel consumption was the strongest contributor to the index in January, rising 7.9 percent between January 2025 and January 2026. The 12-month moving average increased to 65.98 million gallons in January from 65.62 million gallons in December. Both diesel fuel consumption and the new orders index shifted from detractors to contributors to the index compared with the prior month.
Average manufacturing hours and residential building permits each contributed zero to the index, reflecting the ongoing federal data delay.
For more information, contact Robin Anderson, Iowa’s state chief economist, at [email protected] or (515) 423-8005.
