Iowa’s Leading Indicators Index rose slightly in February, though federal government shutdown-related data gaps limited the scope of the monthly report.
The Iowa Leading Indicators Index increased 0.04% to 108.1 in February 2026, up from 108.0 in January. The monthly diffusion index fell to 62.5 in February, down from 87.5 in January.
The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics and U.S. Census Bureau have not yet released February employment and housing data due to the federal government shutdown, leaving average manufacturing hours and residential building permit data unavailable. Iowa Workforce Development said it neutralized those missing components in calculating the February index and will issue retroactive revisions once the data become available.
The BLS also released revised nonfarm employment statistics dating to April 2024. For months in 2025, the average revision to nonfarm employment was -0.39%; for revised months in 2024, the average revision was +0.25%. The Iowa Leading Indicators Index is used as a predictor of change in Iowa’s nonfarm employment index.
The index is designed to signal economic turning points. Two key metrics together are considered a signal of a coming contraction: a six-month annualized change below -2.0% and a six-month diffusion index below 50.0. Neither threshold was met in February.
Five of six component indicators increased more than 0.05% over the past six months: the agricultural futures profits index, the national yield spread, the Iowa Stock Market Index, the new orders index and initial unemployment insurance claims. Diesel fuel consumption decreased by more than 0.05% over the same period and did not contribute to the six-month diffusion index.
The Iowa Stock Market Index was the strongest contributor to the overall index in February. Twenty-one of 27 tracked companies increased in value during the month, including six of nine financial-sector companies. The index rose to 190.32 in February from 182.35 in January, contributing 0.07 to the ILII.
Diesel fuel consumption was the strongest detractor in February. Consumption fell 7.3% between February 2025 and February 2026. The 12-month moving average declined to 65.57 million gallons in February, down from 65.98 million gallons in January.
The monthly Iowa Leading Indicators Index report is available on Iowa Workforce Development’s website.
