The Iowa Leading Indicators Index increased 0.2% in December to 107.8, up from 107.6 in November, according to data released Thursday, Feb. 5 by the Iowa Department of Revenue.
The monthly diffusion index decreased to 62.5 in December, down from 68.8 in November.
The federal government shutdown affected the release of housing data used in the index, and the December 2025 report presents economic analysis based on available components while neutralizing the unavailable component. Retroactive revisions will be included in the index’s historical data when November and December housing data become available.
The index tracks seven component indicators to signal potential economic turning points. A contraction is signaled when the six-month annualized change in the index falls below -2.0% and the six-month diffusion index drops below 50.0.
Four of the seven component indicators increased more than 0.05% over the last six months: the national yield spread, the Iowa Stock Market index, new orders index and initial unemployment insurance claims (inverted). The agricultural futures profits index, average manufacturing hours and diesel fuel consumption decreased by more than 0.05% over the last six months.
The national yield spread was the strongest positive contributor to the index in December. The yield spread contributed to the index and remained out of inversion territory at 0.46% in December, up from 0.15% in November. The long-term rate increased by 5 basis points in December while the short-term rate decreased by 26 basis points.
Diesel fuel consumption and the new orders index shifted from positive contributors to detractors in December. The agricultural futures profits index moved from a negative detractor to a positive contributor.
Residential building permits contributed 0.0 to the index, as the U.S. Census Bureau has not released December housing data due to the federal government shutdown.
Diesel fuel consumption was the strongest detractor to the index in December. Diesel fuel consumption decreased 8.5% between December 2024 and December 2025. The 12-month moving average decreased to 65.62 million gallons in December from 66.10 million in November.
The Iowa Leading Indicators Index uses 1999 as its base year of 100.
