The Iowa Leading Indicators Index rose 0.1% in November to 107.6 from a revised 107.5 in October, according to data released this week by the Iowa Department of Revenue.
The monthly diffusion index increased to 68.8 in November from 31.3 in October. The federal government shutdown has affected the release of housing data used in the index, and retroactive revisions will be included in historical data when September, October and November housing information becomes available.
The index is designed to signal economic turning points when two key metrics appear together: a six-month annualized change below negative 2.0% and a six-month diffusion index below 50.0.
Six of the eight component indicators increased more than 0.05% over the last six months: the national yield spread, diesel fuel consumption, the Iowa Stock Market index, new orders index, initial unemployment insurance claims and residential building permits. The agricultural futures profits index and average manufacturing hours decreased by more than 0.05% over the same period.
Diesel fuel consumption was the strongest positive contributor to the index in November. Consumption increased 7.5% between November 2024 and November 2025, with the 12-month moving average rising to 66.10 million gallons in November from 65.62 million in October.
Diesel fuel consumption, the Iowa Stock Market Index and the new orders index shifted from detractors to positive contributors to the index in November. Residential building permits contributed 0.0 to the index as the U.S. Census Bureau has not yet released housing data due to the federal government shutdown.
The agricultural futures profits index was the strongest detractor in November 2025. Expected profits increased in corn, soybean and cattle during the month, while hog commodities experienced an expected profit decrease. Compared to last year, new crop corn prices were 1.7% higher and soybean prices were 10.9% higher. The November crush margin for cattle increased 160.2% from October while the crush margin for hogs decreased 10.9% from October.
