The Iowa Leading Indicators Index (ILII) rose 0.1% to 107.8 in September, according to a report released by the Iowa Department of Revenue.
The monthly diffusion index, which measures how widespread growth is among the index’s components, decreased to 62.5 in September from 81.3 in August.
The department noted that the ongoing federal government shutdown has delayed the release of employment and housing data used in the ILII. As a result, the September 2025 report is based on available components and neutralizes those with missing data. Once the shutdown ends and the missing information becomes available, retroactive revisions will be made to the ILII’s historical data and the nonfarm employment index.
The ILII is designed to signal economic turning points using two key metrics: a six-month annualized change in the index below -2.0% and a six-month diffusion index below 50.0, which together may indicate an approaching economic contraction.
For the first time since April 2010, all eight component indicators increased more than 0.05% over the past six months. However, two of those components—average weekly manufacturing hours and residential building permits—remain unavailable and could affect future revisions.
The new orders index was the strongest positive contributor to the ILII in September. The index increased to 50.5 from 50.3 in August, while its 12-month moving average rose to 49.4 from 48.6.
Average weekly manufacturing hours and residential building permits each contributed 0.0 to the overall index due to the lack of federal data releases from the Bureau of Labor Statistics and the U.S. Census Bureau.
The Agricultural Futures Profits Index (AFPI) was the largest detractor from the ILII during September. While expected profits increased for corn, soybean and hog commodities, cattle and hogs experienced expected profit decreases.
Compared with a year earlier, new crop corn and soybean prices were both up 2.9%. The September crush margin — a measure of processing profitability—fell 38% for cattle and 0.4% for hogs compared with August.
